November 5, 2012

Apple is a No No

Here is an idea for you, for those who did not already know this I say don't buy Apple's stocks. I´m actually surprised it has now fallen as much it has because of some "not so amazing" quarters.

I believe it has not peaked yet, it will turn back up for some time and then slide down. But that is not my point. My point is that it is already clearly overvalued and once, sooner or later that bubble bursts and then it will come very far down from its current value. Personally I do like their products and I see Apple having a long future in tech sector if they keep having talented creators in their ranks. But their stock price is unsustainable at current level. It might not come down in a long time, but when it does I will follow it and if it comes down deep enough (and of course the business still looks good) I will buy it. Because it is still a great company with strong value. I just want it for the right price that makes sense.

Source: http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Summary?s=AAPL:NSQ


October 27, 2012

China - Somewhere there are jewels



Currently my portfolio contains three Chinese stocks that are listed in the US market. I am aware of what has been the problem with Chinese stocks during past years and I would have not bought these stocks if I had any reason to doubt their legitimacy. On the contrary, they have been able to take down all allegations made against them. They have all been growing nicely and are doing business in areas where I see great potential growth. Only real risk I see is with Chinese government and IF they decide to do something harmfull. Which I don't consider too likely, but still possible. Not big enough of a risk to keep me away.

Here you might be wondering WTF about Xinyuan? Yes, China has plenty of ghost towns. Homes build to be empty. BUT: Xinyuan is strict on where it chooses to build. And it has been doing it very well. Recently they have also bought land from the US and are starting building projects over there. I trust they are able to implement their strategy efficiently and if there is going to be something like a collapse of Chinese housing bubble, they will be able to avoid it.

In short: Chinese people need food and sustainable production and use of fertilizers is important. Developing country needs constantly more oil and someone has to transport it to the demand. People are moving and cities are growing and better houses are more affordable to people. These companies are all selling under their book value. They have been hit hard by the suspicions of fraud that west currently has against Chinese companies. But they have been growing strongly and their future seems promising. 

I am confident with my purchases and in for the long term. So I am now just sitting back and watching the show.

China Green Agriculture Homepage
CGA is a public company listed in the New York Stock Exchange with the ticker of CGA. We are registered in the state of Nevada with our main operations in the People’s Republic of China. Our principle operations are conducted through our PRC subsidiaries which produce and distribute humic acid liquid compound fertilizer, blended fertilizer, organic compound fertilizer and mixed organic-inorganic compound fertilizer throughout 22 provinces, 4 autonomous regions and 3 municipal cities in China. Our company’s competitive strengths are national distribution, brand awareness, state of the art research and development, automated production, and after-sales support.

Longwei Petroleum Investment Holding Homepage
Longwei Petroleum is an energy company engaged in the storage and wholesale distribution of finished petroleum products in China. The Company's oil and gas operations consist of transporting, storage and selling finished petroleum products, primarily in central China.  The Company is headquartered in Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province.

Xinyuan Real Estate Co Ltd Homepage
Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. is a developer of large scale, high quality residential real estate projects aimed at providing middle-income consumers with a comfortable and convenient community lifestyle. Mr. Yong Zhang founded Xinyuan in Zhengzhou in 1997 and the Company was ranked No.1 in Zhengzhou by residential contract sales in 2004. Xinyuan focuses on China’s Tier II cities, characterized as larger, more developed urban areas with above average GDP and population growth rates. Xinyuan started expanding across China in 2006 and now cover a total population of over 44.7 million people in seven strategically selected Tier II cities, comprising Hefei, Jinan, Kunshan, Suzhou, Zhengzhou, Xuzhou and Chengdu.


There are four other Chinese based stocks that I am currently following and considering to buy.

SkyPeople Fruit Juice Inc, Zuoan Fashion Ltd, China Xiniya Fashion Ltd, VLOV Inc.
Three last of the list are all in fashion/clothing.



Got any tips/advice/information that you even slightly think is useful for me to know? Don't hesitate to tell me!

This blog post shows examples from my personal portfolio and contains my personal opinions. Everyone else is advised to do their own ground-work before making an investment decision.

October 24, 2012

Portfolio - October 2012

Following posts will be listing my current investment portfolio. I have investments in one start-up company that holds a major part of my portfolio. Rest is divided between Chinese companies, "normal" ones and some badly hit that are still bleeding blood on the streets.

These companies are chosen by looking at their assets, stock price compared to that (so value investing ideology), their past years and expectations and what is the word on the street about them. So if after all this the soup still tasted good, they have ended in my portfolio. 

Unless I suddenly find a reason to get rid of some of my investments, I will be sticking with these for the long term and slowly adding more as I gain more extra cash.

If you have any information concerning these companies that you think is important, please do tell me so I can consider that.


October 13, 2012

In search for value..

Lately I have been too busy and in other worlds to write here. I´m currently in France and constantly experiencing new things which keep me too busy. But when I can I also think about my own investments and try to find good stocks that are under their book value. I have to make a list of those stocks later. But now I'll share you my favorite sources of information.

The most useful site to find stocks worth investigating has been  Financial Times Stock Screener
Extremely useful tool to find stocks that match the criteria I search for. And from there it is possible to check so many other useful things related to that stock you choose to investigate.

When I have tried to find more information related to a certain company, or just searching for companies that other people have found interesting, I too often find interesting reading from Seeking Alpha. A very useful site to get some new ideas. Through that site I have found so many companies to check out and some maybe even worth investing in.


For some comedy, check out WhenInFinance

October 3, 2012

What ALL Successful People Have in Common

Been a bit too busy lately to write good things here. But I have been thinking about my own investments and constructed my own investment portfolio during two past months. I´ll return to that later on... Now another kind of text but with a useful message.


We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act, but a habit. – Aristotle.


And Aristotle is quite right: a successful person is built around good habits. It’s inevitable for you to become a winner if you have the right habits. But it’s not something you can do from one day to the other. It takes time, effort and commitment to create these habits. Here are a few of my favorite to get you kick started.

I recommend you to work just with one every month. If there’s something that helped me achieving all what I have and will achieve, it’s focusing on these:


1- Having a Low Information Diet.

To start a low information diet has been one of my best decisions. It’s a great relief and a huge time saver. It’s really something that can change your life. Breaking it up to the essentials, it means to batch email, stop reading the news and to stop pointless social media surfing.

By doing this you’ll get rid of the biggest time wasters of our era. You’ll avoid interruption and will be able to exclusively focus on getting your most important tasks done. If you want to multiply your productivity, this is the way to go.

The benefits of having a low information diet far outnumber the potential and so threatened negative consequences. I don’t check emails more than twice a day, don’t read newspapers (just business) and so far no catastrophe has happened. If I’m dying to do so (which hardly happens) I do it after finishing with all my tasks for the day.


2- Exercise 20-30 Minutes Every Day.

I have been going to the gym ever since I was 13. I hate it since day one. But, want it or not, it’s good for me. I’m proud of having a good body, of being healthy and of being fit to do any activity I want to. Yet, every time I had to sacrifice something to save time for study, work or something else gym was first on the list. If I had to quit something, I would quit the gym.

That’s really bad. My body has never lost shape, but it could certainly do if I stay out of exercise for long. What do I do, then? First thing in the morning, before doing anything, just after eating a couple of fruits, I go out and run. Not that much, really. Maybe 20 minutes, no more. And then I make another twenty minutes of exercise outside, at home or, maybe, in the gym.

Like it or not to stay healthy is important and I can’t just skip it. By doing all exercise first thing in the morning I make sure I won’t. After all, the temptation not to go running or not to lift weights multiplies as time goes by. Do it whenever you want to, but do it.


3- Write Down Your Three Most Important Tasks (MIT) Every Day.

First thing in the morning take a notebook and write which are your three most important tasks for the day. Don’t do less and don’t do more: three is the right number. What these tasks are depends on you, but they should be something outside of your routine.

If you are studying, it could be to read X pages of the books and write the highlights on your notebooks. If you are working it could be to complete a project or advance with some other. If these three are the most important things you have to do that day all your effort should be focused on completing them. Once you finished you can move to something else.

Make a habit of completing all these tasks. It’s no use if you constantly write them down and never accomplish them. With that in mind, start small. Focus on tasks that you can, with a decent amount of effort, surely complete. Once you are getting good with it, move on to more demanding projects.


4- Read One Book Every Week.

Reading is a very good habit. Books will flow your head with ideas, thoughts, culture and more. So take a few hours out of your TV and Internet routines and spend it reading.

Read nonfiction to learn, to have new ideas and to expose you to the thoughts and teachings of remarkable people. The potential is gigantic. There are surely dozens of high quality books on any topic you have interest about: be it work, projects or just for fun.

Work your way to read one book a week. On this article Steve Pavlina points out the great benefits of doing so. But the highlight is that when you read a new book every week, you condition your mind to keep taking in new knowledge. You’ll have new anecdotes and stories to share, new perspectives and ways of thinking. It’s really worth it.

If you just don’t have physical time to spend reading, multitask. I always have a book in my bag, wherever I go to. Also, I hear audio books when I’m exercising or moving around the city. I also have programs to hear while I’m driving. It’s great from any side you look!

You may ask yourself: but doesn’t he get bored of reading? Absolutely not. I read or hear programs about subjects I’m passionate about (and so should you). There’s no way I’m going to get bored. Plus, all this reading means at least an hour a day of new ideas that will flow my mind. I love it.

Finally, I also keep reading fiction books. I read at least one or two chapters of fiction in bed just before sleeping. This way I engage my imagination and abstract myself from all the thoughts about the future, about planning my tasks or about worrying about the future. Helps out for that and there’s nothing like a very good fiction!


5- Be Nice To Everyone.

It’s amazing how much can you achieve just by being nicer than you normally are. Take a few extra seconds (or minutes) to make people feel great around you. Make them feel important, ask them questions, how they are doing and never forget the magic words “please” and “thank you.” It takes almost no effort and the benefits are spectacular.

When you buy something, ask for it kindly and with a smile. When you meet someone, ask them how they are and compliment them. Be all about positive energy. People will then want to meet you, become closer friends and will do you favors.






September 21, 2012

Ian Rushbrook - Ten Rules for Investment


You probably do not know who is Ian Rushbook. Well he is an investor with a great track record. You can look him up if you want to, but here is one of his most important lessons:


1. Only invest in companies with growth in revenues per share and avoid companies that grow by acquisition.
Mere grows in size is of no benefit to shareholders.  The value of the shares is determined not by the size of the company as a whole but by the revenues, earnings and dividends per share, and their rate of growth.

2. Avoid highly geared companies like the plague - debt is crippling to management flexibility and corporate growth.
Even though this may sound counterintuitive as equity investors are always inclined to think that gearing is good.  Yet the financial graveyard is littered with companies which borrowed too much and came unstuck.

Running a highly geared company also means that the interests of the shareholders is not first in the minds of management but that creditors are.  That is never a good situation.

3. Only invest in companies with an attractive return on total capital employed as opposed to simple and high ROE achieved through debt.
Calculating the return on equity while ignoring the rest of capital employed is a grave mistake. Equity, because of write-offs can also be negative. This would mean that even a small profit will give an infinite ROE.

A better measure of measuring returns is to calculate the return on total capital employed which includes debt, and if you like, deferred tax liabilities which is really an interest free loan from the government.

Return on capital employed is calculated by dividing net profit (before or after tax whatever you prefer) by total equity plus total debt (plus deferred tax liabilities)


4. The market does 95% of the work for you - your problem is not to duplicate research but to identify errors of logic in company evaluations.
Ian gives an example of banks being the dogs of the stock market in the 1970s and 1980s.  Periods of high inflation.

Yet over the five-year period until 2001 banks make shareholders millions.  Not because major broking analysts were not analysing them properly.  It was because most investors had failed to spot how attractive banks had become in the new low inflation environment.

Ian mentions that he was never in favour of and always sceptical of the idea of new macroeconomic paradigms.  He however mentioned that new paradigms for individual companies and sectors really can emerge.  Helping to spot them is an important part of a fund manager's job.


5. Against the market at any point in time, that which looks statistically cheap is probably dear and visa versa. 
What Ian is saying is that there is usually a good reason for apparent valuation anomalies.

This can be summed up as generally speaking the market knows more than you do and there is usually a good reason for apparent anomalies, one market sector being remarkably inexpensive for example.

Be very careful before investing in such anomalies without doing thorough research.


6. Only invest in companies where you would be willing to work for the chief executive.
This can usually be determined to the answering of a few simple questions.

From the coverage in the media would you as a young person gladly follow such a person?
Can he articulate a sound strategy?
Does he have the charisma to give the company a sense of purpose and excitement?


7. If you don’t understand the product or service don’t invest in the company.
The most striking example of this rule took place in the time of the South Sea bubble in 1720 when a company was successfully promoted as "for an undertaking which shall in due time be revealed".

Compare that to the “clicks not profits” idea from the internet bubble and it just goes to show human nature does not change.


8. Working full-time in investment you will probably only see two or three outstanding investment opportunities in a year - be prepared to wait for them.
Investing can sometimes be a lonely and boring pursuit as Warren Buffett has said many times.

Not being able to sit on their hands is probably the biggest problems fund managers have as they think they must show activity to justify their fees.


9. Minimise portfolio turnover.
That is best summarised by the quote “if there's nothing worth doing it's worth doing nothing”.

Portfolio turnover can be a substantial drag on your investment returns. Even with internet dealing decreasing transaction costs it still costs about 1% to get in and out of a position.

And with government looking to tax anything and everything this may go up even more.


10. Entertain your broker at your expense rather than his - this will improve his advice dramatically.
If you are entertained by your broker you often feel duty bound to pay for it by placing an order.  But if you can afford your own lunches it's better to keep your investment objectivity by entertaining your broker.

This way he will feel obligated to give you a few good ideas. Always a good position to be in and probably the best meal you ever paid for.







September 15, 2012

A Talk With the Co-Founder of Skype: Lessons For Entrepreneurs


This is an older text but still very useful to read. Sorry for not crediting the original author, but I can't remember who had written this as I just had this sitting in a text file :)



“I worked hard, and I worked all the time. But then, you are not ‘working’… you are building something – and it’s fun.”

Paraphrasing a bit, this was how Niklas Zennström started his talk in Copenhagen. He’s the co-founder of Skype, as well as Kazaa, the mythical P2P file-sharing powerhouse of the early 2000s.

I had the chance to hear Niklas live for more than hour. He spoke about his own ventures, how he invests and gave general advice and ideas for want-to-be entrepreneurs. Here I’ll share a few of his key points with you.

To start, Niklas talked about investments. He explained how his investment group, Atomico, invests in companies  - to sum up, he mentioned the following characteristics as the keys:

a) They have a superstar team – which, in his words, means people who are: ambitious, leaders, highly intelligent, with a lot of stamina and with a diverse academic or work background.

It impressed me that he named stamina among the five main points – but then, as the quote I started with implies, when building something great you need to work A LOT. Keep that always in mind – no big success will come easy.

b) They have a game-changing technology. Not copycats – teams working on something original which, he pointed out several times, can be scaled fast. Category winners, and international-oriented by default.

Think about these as the keys to success – straight from a very successful guy who has done it twice.

Then, he made some good points about location, especially for European entrepreneurs. He said that companies starting in places like Denmark (a smaller economy than the US state of Washington), have the advantage of being internationally-focused by default, given that the local market is very small and, if going for the big bucks, the entrepreneurs have to think for a global market from the start. That’s an advantage to, say, German, French or even American entrepreneurs.

But then, he also threw a rock at Europeans in general – in the EU, he said, people try to protect the past (via social security, welfare state, etc), while in Latin America and other emerging markets people just go forward and push for the future, making innovation more likely.

The Success of Skype

Skype was a huge success – Niklas had already started Kazaa, which in the early 2000s was the most downloaded software in the world. A huge precedent, this made him and his associates no strangers in the start up world.

Kazaa, via its immense platform, and the buzz around its founders made the funding and spread of Skype easier – but then, what’s remarkable is that Skype, with 600+ million registered users, completely eclipsed Kazaa. And, for the record, it made (and keeps making) big money – something which Kazaa, given it’s nature, found very hard to do.

Other keys for Skype’s success, he said, were:

They had the right timing. Skype hit just when broadband connections were spreading big time – was it before, it would have flopped. Was it later, it would have been too late.
They were very fast. They rapidly integrated Kazaa’s technology to the product. Skype was nothing about file-sharing, but the technology behind Kazaa’s direct-user connections was what ended up powering Skype’s own connections.
Skype passed the Mom’s test. It was a super advanced software, but it needed to be easy to use. Niklas made his mom and sister try it – and they learned to use it effortlessly and very fast.
Skype kept innovating and constantly listened to its customers. That’s how it outpaced its competition.
The rest, you know, is history – Skype not only has become the world’s lead chat service, but it has also survived the attacks of Google, Microsoft and Yahoo while also taking a big chunk of the multi-billion dollar international phone calls service.

To close off, here’s a bit of random points of the talk I also found very interesting:

1- Now it’s very cheap to start in the tech-entrepreneur world. Cloud computing, he said, changed the game. You don’t need your own servers anymore, and there are cheap, web-based tools that will do most of the work that took time and costed a lot of money before.

2- Mobile is key – it’s more intimate. People carry their mobiles everywhere. The smartphones are everyone’s alarm  clock – and they are never more than a meter away. You NEED to play mobile if you want to win.

3- When he started Kazaa, he turned the living room of his house into his office – while married and all. We’ll always hear about garage entrepreneurs, but having him telling the story in front of me made it sound much more real.

And last, there’s just one more point I have to make myself. Niklas didn’t start with Skype alone – nor did Larry Page start Google alone, or Bill Gates in Microsoft or even Mark Zuckerberg in Facebook. Instead of keep looking for the ‘next big idea’, start looking for WHO is the right person to help you pursue that said idea.

August 13, 2012

Overhyping a stock

This is a bit late but the lesson is always there.

Couple months ago when Facebook stock was listed you clearly had signs that it will be overpriced.

Why?

I can't say about USA or Germany or the likes but here in Finland the news very rarely speak about stocks if it isn't Nokia. And they were CONSTANTLY talking about Facebook. Not just once or a couple of times, they mentioned Facebook every day.

If media mentions a stock often -> people will buy it -> it will be overpriced.

Lessons we can learn? Be very careful when buying new stocks that are just entering over-the-counter market. As a short term investment Facebook offered a good return, but that short term was under a day in this case, only some hours. Follow the media, and go against the crowd.

Yahoo news: Was the Facebook Deal Overhyped? 18th MAy, 2012


August 12, 2012

August 5, 2012

Sunday Culture

Stumbled upon a nice little movie related to investing, called "Other people's money".


Danny DeVito Explaining Value Investing






A corporate raider threatens a hostile take-over of a "mom and pop" company. The patriarch of the company enlists the help of his wife's daughter, who is a lawyer, to try and protect the company. The raider is enamoured of her, and enjoys the thrust and parry of legal manoeuvring as he tries to win her heart.

July 31, 2012

The Most Important Questions Every Value Investor Should Ask About a Stock


Once you’re ready to put together a portfolio of value investing stocks, it’s time to begin the research process.  Browne said that the folks at Tweedy, Browne & Company focused on several questions when examining potential value stocks.  These were:
  1. What is the outlook for pricing the company’s products?  Can the company raise prices?  How much of that price increase will fall to the bottom line?
  2. Can the company sell more?  What is the outlook for units?
  3. Can the company increase profits on existing sales?  What is the outlook for the gross profit margin as a percentage of sales?  How much is the gross profit margin expected to increase or decrease as a result in changes in price, mix of business, or the specific costs that make up the cost of goods sold?
  4. Can the company control expenses?
  5. If the company does raise sales, how much of the increase will fall to the bottom line?
  6. Can the company be as profitable as it used to be, or at least as profitable as its competitors?
  7. Does the company have one-time expenses that will not have to be paid in the future?
  8. Does the company have unprofitable operations it can shed?
  9. Is the company comfortable with Wall Street’s earnings estimates?
  10. How much can the company grow over the next five years?  How will the growth be achieved?
  11. What will the company do with the excess cash generated by the business?  Every dollar of profit not given to the shareholders in the form of dividends will be retained by the company.  What does management intend to do with it?
  12. What does the company expect its competitors to do?
  13. How does the company compare financially with other companies in the same business?
  14. What would the company be worth if it were sold?
  15. Does the company plan to buy back stock?
These questions will help you determine whether a stock is undervalued relative to the market’s expectations for future earnings.  This approach has worked wonders for value investors who entrusted their money to Tweedy, Browne.  After fees, Tweedy, Browne & Company has beat the S&P 500 by nearly 2% points per year for 40 years.  That may not seem like a lot, but for someone who saved $10,000 per year, it’s the difference is startling: Someone who invested in the S&P 500 would have retired with $7,670,914 whereas an investor with Tweedy, Browne & Company would have sailed away into their golden years with a personal nest egg of more than $17,790,903.  For most people, an extra $10,119,989 is worth the extra work required to understand stock valuation!

July 8, 2012

Four principles for the open world

This is a good video explaining how the world is changing and personally I find this very interesting and important.  I would love to find business ideas where we can use the power of the people, knowledge and expertise of people worldwide to develop our ideas and create change.


Don Tapscott: Four principles for the open world



For example:



July 3, 2012

The Only Way to Become Amazingly Great at Something

Very often you’ll see blog posts or books teaching you to “master” a skill in only 10 days, or 3 days … in fact, it used to be 30 days but the time frame to master something seems to be shrinking rapidly.

I’ve even seen tutorials claiming to teach a skill in just a few hours. Pretty soon we’ll be demanding to know how to do something in seconds.

Instant mastery of skills and knowledge! Hey presto!

Unfortunately, the reality is something a little less magical. Or maybe that’s a fortunate thing.

There’s only one way to become good at something:


    First, you must learn it by reading or listening to others who know how to do it, but most especially by doing.
    Then do some more. At this point, you’ll start to understand it, but you’ll suck. This stage could take months.
    Do some more. After a couple of years, you’ll get good at it.
    Do some more. If you learn from mistakes, and aren’t afraid to make mistakes in the first place, you’ll go from good to great.


It takes anywhere from 6-10 years to get great at something, depending on how often and how much you do it.

Some estimate that it takes 10,000 hours to master something, but I think it varies from person to person and depends on the skill and other factors.

Want to be a great writer? It’s possible to be great within a few years, if you have the God-given talent of Fitzgerald or Shakespeare, but most of us toil for over a decade and are still trying to get better.

We’re still learning, to this day, and if we look back on our first few years of writing — of any kind — we’ll tell you we sucked (for the most part) back then.

Want to be a great blogger? Same deal. I’ve been doing it for almost three years, and I’m still only competent. Gruber’s been doing it for, like, 7 years and he’s still only … well, he’s pretty great by now.

You have to do it, make mistakes, learn, really begin to understand it, and someday, if you stick with it, you’ll be great.

There’s no one who is great at his profession who hasn’t been doing it for at least 6 years — no designer, no programmer, no carpenter, no architect, no surgeon, no teacher, no musician, no artist … you get the point.

I dare you to name one.

Most have been doing it for over a decade, and are still looking to improve.

It takes desire, it takes drive, it takes lots and lots of doing.

So here’s the thing: don’t get discouraged if you’re just starting out. Have fun, like we all did in the beginning.

If you have fun, you’ll learn to love it, and THAT’S when it clicks. When you love something, you’ll want to do it all the time, sometimes late at night and and early in the morning.

THAT’S how you get great.


Find that desire.

Do it, don’t just read about it.

Don’t buy a single product or book or magazine that claims to teach you something in minutes, hours, days. They’re lying to your face, with a hand in your pocket at the same time.

Do it, keep doing it, then keep doing it some more. It’s the only way to get great, but the good news: anyone can do it. It just takes some time and some doing. Hey presto.

June 26, 2012

Nokia or Mokia?

I´m terribly sorry I have not been writing anything in a while. Just keeping myself too busy with other things and not thinking enough about finance. I am following the news and checking how this situation in Europe changes. Also reading some good books when I have time to, so I must write a message about those as well since I´d like to recommend them to you. I have to kick myself a bit and start to write shorter blogs if I have nothing more pressing in my mind. 


I would like to share my own idea of Nokia's future since it is such a hot topic in Finland currently. Joining the flow of the weepers! (I do not own Nokia at the moment ^^ )If you have followed the mobile market at all then you know how Nokia's future is still uncertain and their cooperation with Microsoft could be anything from hell to heaven.. more likely total devastation but who knows..

Yesterday Nokia's closing price in Helsinki was 1.711€ (Early 2011 stock was sold for over 8 euros). Nokia has published some good new models but in consumer's eye they are not as popular as other top names today. And Microsoft is either trying to destroy Nokia or a horrible business partner since they do not seem to be helping Nokial. No Windows Phone 8 Upgrade? 

It was thought that Nokia's decline would stop in 3 euros, then it came down to 2, and seems to be continuing this decline. Personally I'm thinking that market price for Nokia will be around 1 euro in the future. It seems they are not getting out any positive news in the near future and this long decline is probably continuing since stock markets are not too positive as a whole either. 

Personally I have not lost all my hope With Nokia yet. Their future seems uncertain and gloomy, but they are still a big quality company which can turn their tide if they do the required decisions. If the price reaches 1e, I would consider buying some shares. Less than that is of course possible if negative news keep controlling the market. Holding time would be expected to be very long, from 5 years to a life time. 

Explaining the title.
In Finnish to "fail" in something can be said as
 "mokata". So joke among Fins is to call Nokia as Mokia, "Nokia, A Screw Up".

May 20, 2012

Sunday Culture, Body Culture

Today I´ll share with you how I stay healthy and have enough energy through the day. Being in good shape is vital so you´ll stay healthy, have enough energy to get through your long workday and still be motivated to continue moving after getting home. It helps you to focus through the day which is important in professions where you have to keep thinking, like dealing with financial markets all day. Or in professions where you just have to do physical work, so having a good physical condition helps you a lot.

A couple of years ago I found Scooby1961. He was my first mentor in training and got me started. This man is over 50 years old and is still in great shape.
What can I even say. Except he is a man who truly wants to share his knowledge and to help everyone to be stronger and healthier. He is a great guide for you if you are just starting to do some light training and lose fat or want to know how to do a little more to also gain muscle. He is also always giving you tips how to train at home so you can train your whole body with minimal cost to your wallet.

This is a great starting video for you if you wish to lose body fat and aren't yet ready for higher level training. Browse his channel for many more videos.


I have been following Scooby's tips for a couple of year now and as I started to feel more ready to go for more demanding training I have started to follow people like Rob Riches.


If you are ready to go even deeper in your training then I can advice you to follow Rob Riches. A pro fitness model who will give you same kinda information with same level of enthusiasm as Scooby, but in a much more demanding level. By his help you can fine tune your body to look absolutely amazing.



April 29, 2012

Sunday Culture

Today I found some very special. I know this wont please many, but I hope the rest of you can enjoy this great performance.

La Bayadère was the creation of the choreographer Marius Petipa, the renowned Premier maître de ballet of the St. Petersburg Imperial Theatres. The music was written by the composer Ludwig Minkus, Petipa's chief collaborator, who from 1871 until 1886 held the official post of Ballet Composer to the St. Petersburg Imperial Theatres.


La Bayadère   1991





April 22, 2012

France

Today I´ll tell you about something different.

I was recently accepted to spend a year studying in ESC Rennes School of Business. Next Autumn and following Spring I will be spending in France, in a city called Rennes. And I will be telling about my experiences in another blog. If you are interested to see pictures from France and hear about my experiences, remember to keep following me at http://270daysinfrance.blogspot.com/?view=sidebar. Updating will be slow for now, more about preparation, as my journey starts at next September.




April 15, 2012

Sunday Motivation

A short video to motivate you in long your journey towards your goals.



1. Trust Yourself!
2. Break the rules!
3. Don't be afraid to fail!
4. Don't listen to the naysayers!
5. Work your butt off!
6. Always give something back!

April 13, 2012

Recommended Reading

During these past months I have been going through two books related to my interests. If you are really interested about finance and economics, then I can really recommend you to check this books.

First is:
Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance by Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm.

And the second on: The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World by Niall Ferguson.


I have enjoyed both books very much. The Ascent of Money is great because it goes through history. Something that in my school at least, isn't taught much at all. Information it offers I find to be very interesting and I believe that we should learn more from history. The Ascent of Money is also about historical crisis, more than Crisis Economics which is more about the present situation and how to explain that. As a fan of history I find The Ascent of Money to be much more interesting and find it to be a valuable teacher, if you want to learn to understand what happened in history and how to relate those things to present and the future. History rely tends to repeat itself.



Few words about the book by others:

Review of The Ascent of Money, by MoneyScience.
We've all got money on the brain. The high drama of the credit crunch and banking crisis, combined with everyday fears of job loss, negative equity and poverty, have brought financial matters to the fore. On the face of it, this is the perfect time for Niall Ferguson to produce The Ascent of Money: a Financial History of the World.The difficulty is that far from ascending, money seems to be in free-fall. Ferguson acknowledges this, and admits that his title may appear "to sound an incongruously optimistic note". But he argues that the financial system is simply "the mirror of mankind, revealing…the way we value ourselves and the resources of the world around us. It is not the fault of the mirror if it reflects our blemishes as well as our beauty." Ferguson attempts to evacuate markets of any moral content. It is our greed and ignorance that have created the current crisis, rather than the financial system. There is some truth in this. Some collective responsibility must be borne for the over-stretched budgets of the households and exchequers of the West.But Ferguson's biography of finance, told with verve and insight, throws more light on our predicament than perhaps even he realises. The Ascent of Money charts the rise of money from clay tokens passed around the villages of Mesopotamia 5,000 years ago to flickering numbers on a foreign exchange screen; yet it also reminds us that money represents a relationship of trust.
 Description
Bread, cash, dosh, dough, loot: Call it what you like, it matters. To Christians, love of it is the root of all evil. To generals, it's the sinews of war. To revolutionaries, it's the chains of labour. But in The Ascent of Money, Niall Ferguson shows that finance is in fact the foundation of human progress. What's more, he reveals financial history as the essential back-story behind all history.
The evolution of credit and debt was as important as any technological innovation in the rise of civilization, from ancient Babylon to the silver mines of Bolivia. Banks provided the material basis for the splendours of the Italian Renaissance, while the bond market was the decisive factor in conflicts from the Seven Years' War to the American Civil War.
With the clarity and verve for which he is famed, Niall Ferguson explains why the origins of the French Revolution lie in a stock market bubble caused by a convicted Scots murderer. He shows how financial failure turned Argentina from the world's sixth richest country into an inflation-ridden basket case - and how a financial revolution is propelling the world's most populous country from poverty to power in a single generation.
Yet the most important lesson of the financial history is that sooner or later every bubble bursts - sooner or later the bearish sellers outnumber the bullish buyers - sooner or later greed flips into fear. And that's why, whether you're scraping by or rolling in it, there's never been a better time to understand the ascent of money.

Part of Ruth Sunderland's review of Crisis Economics.

History suggests international banking crises are often the harbinger of sovereign debt defaults and collapsed currencies, as we are seeing in Greece – if the imbalances persist, that could be just a taste of things to come.This book is a tightly argued, convincing assault on the free-market ideology that allowed the finance sector to hijack the global economy. It has a strong message for governments, including our own newly minted coalition. Making markets function better demands a bigger role for government, not a smaller one. Politicians will have to square up to the banks, and if workers are to navigate an uncertain world of employment they will need support in education, retraining, portable pensions and a benefits safety net, along with tax systems that reduce inequality.Its most important insight is its simplest: that economists, politicians, and Wall Street traders allowed themselves to be seduces by the free market, and the limitless wonders of financial innovation. So, wether we were aware of it or not, did many of the rest of us. We were lulled into thinking we could carry on living beyond our means. This is a wake-up call.

March 22, 2012

YaleCourses 252

It has been a while since my last blog and I´m sorry about that. I've been having too much to do and haven't had time to really think about investing and blogging. My own investments are such long term investments, that I just currently follow the news and how markets are doing. Haven't even read anyone else's blog in months :(


This time I´ll share with you another great lecture by Yale and Robert J. Shiller.


FINANCIAL MARKETS (ECON 252)

Financial institutions are a pillar of civilized society, supporting people in their productive ventures and managing the economic risks they take on. The workings of these institutions are important to comprehend if we are to predict their actions today and their evolution in the coming information age. The course strives to offer understanding of the theory of finance and its relation to the history, strengths and imperfections of such institutions as banking, insurance, securities, futures, and other derivatives markets, and the future of these institutions over the next century.

Here is the first lecture:

Full list of all the videos by ECON 252 can be found here.



February 18, 2012

One Simple Thing That Will Change Your Life

Do you have your very own palace of inspiration? Do you have one place in the world where you enter down and depressed and leave with a big smile and full of hope? If you don’t, it has to be your priority to find one fast. You must have a place where you and you alone are recharged of energy, where your dreams come closer and your will to make them real starts burning.

Although I am not a religious person, a church is one of those places where I can concentrate in my thoughts. I like churches, especially big, quiet ones. I always have one to go to, no matter where I am in the world. Be it in Buenos Aires, Vienna, Rio or even in some random city in my travels, I always find one place, one palace of inspiration. I stay, always alone, a couple of minutes or sometimes hours… I take all the time I need to and feel necessary to feel great again. And it always works! I’m so grateful to have places like this. You don’t have to be religious nor go to a Church to have your own place of concentration.

It’s just great to be there undisturbed and connecting with my deeper self. I examine the situation, the world and life overall – And then I think deep which are the paths I should take. Be it issues about job, study or love, it’s just perfect that there’s one place where you can go and really tackle seriously all these things.

You must find one place in the world where you can have the same feeling, where you can achieve that deep talk with yourself too. Most probably it’s not going to be home, so go out and search for a place like this. It could be a building, a park or even some place in the countryside. It has to be the place where you are the most comfortable at.

February 5, 2012

The happy secret to better work

Don't spend your time focusing on goals that do not motivate you. Success should not be defined by values such as how much money you made last year. Correct definition would be: Can you look back and be happy about what you spend your time doing.

We believe that we should work to be happy, but could that be backwards? In this fast-moving and entertaining talk from TEDxBloomington, psychologist Shawn Achor argues that actually happiness inspires productivity.





You can read more about this subject in Wall Street Journal, Workplace Blues? Call a “Happiness Coach”

February 4, 2012

What Finnish companies to follow

Earlier I posted a blog about what companies I found to be interesting investing targets by looking at their numbers like ROA and P/B among many others. List was very strict and only a few companies looked like truly good investing targets after that. This blog is much more general. I will list all Finnish stock companies that I find interesting. Most of these companies are very high in quality and they have long and profitable futures ahead of them. My problem for not investing in them is because they are either overvalued in my eyes or their futures seem too risky.

List of Helsinki Stock Exchange based companies that I recommend you to follow:


Neste Oil
What interest me is their research in bio diesel. If that fails then Neste Oil will stay as a meaningless Finnish company but if it succeeds their stock could be a really good investment in the long run.

Strong quality companies which I would definitely buy if their stock prices took a dive. I require the dive to be a big one because their stock prices are greatly over my limits. Great high quality companies to have in your portfolio.
Nordic Aluminium
Kone
Tikkurila
Fortum
Vacon
Wärtsilä
Alma Media
Fiskars


Banks. Big and strong. By what we know these would not be affected if Europeans banks started to face problems thanks to PIIGS-crisis. If crisis were to expand I expect that Pohjola Pankki would be the strongest. They have less international ties and are less likely to take a hit if other banks fall.
Pohjola Pankki
Nordea Bank
Sampo

Telecommunication companies are doing good profits and considered to be defensive.
Elisa
TeliaSonera

Cyclical companies that are likely to rise in the future but remember to sell them once you are happy with your received return because they will eventually dive.
Outokumpu 
Rautaruukki

Young mining company that is still far from its expected potential. They have experienced many problems, also with environment protection. So far everything has been manageable and in the far future they seem very strong.
Talvivaara


Biotie Therapies
Very young company and stock price is still only 50c because they have not published anything. Creating different medicines and future is still very uncertain but contains possible big sellers.

UPM-Kymmene
UPM has been making some changes into its operations and now they are slowly focusing on bio diesel. They have a long history with paper and other related products but are slowly removing their less profitable parts and going for new growth opportunities.

These are all still trying to grow much larger and I´m interested to see which ones can do it with good returns to the stock owners.

Cargotec
Efore
Exel Composites
Konecranes


PKC Group
Uponor


Basware
Comptel
Keskisuomalainen

Marimekko
Nokian Renkaat
Pohjois-Karjalan Kirjapaino
Rapala VMC
Olvi

Nokia
If they manage to find the consumer again they can be highly profitable in the future. Nokia is a good and strong company but the problem is if they can change in a way that makes Nokia products popular again.

These two are on my list as BUY now. Cheap quality.
Saga Furs
Okmetic


January 29, 2012

What it Means to Own Stocks? +Sunday Culture

I´ll keep the message of this blog in the basics. Not that YOU necessarily need it but there is always someone who needs to remind herself of the basics. Many of us just trade stocks and try to gain money by taking advantage of the price movement. Stocks have a bigger meaning for many others and to those companies issuing them. Khan Academy's video is a great tool for reminding us of that. Never forget the basics!


What it means to buy a company's stock



As a Sunday Culture bonus piece:
E.S. Posthumus is not your average musical artist.


E.S. Posthumus is an independent music group that produces cinematic style music. It is a form of epic classical that fuses intertwined drum beats with orchestral and electronic sounds. Their music is inspired by the Pythagorean Philosophy which states that "music is the harmonization of opposites; the conciliation of warring elements". The E.S. is an acronym for "Experimental Sounds" while Posthumus is a word that represents "all things past".

January 25, 2012

What is Value investing?

This is a text by Tim du Toit. I advice you to read it and more from him at http://www.eurosharelab.com/ 



Many people throw around the term value investing without an exact definition of what really it means.


Since value investing has become so popular some funds will now call themselves value funds and be nothing of the sort. Some "value" funds own high p/e technology stocks that Benjamin Graham would have never considered anything remotely close to value stocks.

Of course the fund manager will say even at a 50 p/e the stock is still "undervalued", this argument can be used to say any stock in the world is a value stock. So the question is what really is value investing


The first school of thought in value investing believes that there is no simple formula to investing.

With thousands of analyst covering the big cap stocks like MRK (Merck) and KO (Coke), you would not be getting more value by buying Merck at a P/E of 8 vs Coke at a 20 P/E.

This theory largely agrees to the Efficient Market theory, which states that the market incorporates all data immediately, and therefore you cannot beat the market. Many value experts including Bruce Greenwald, Seth Klarman among many others subscribe to this notion.

Seth Klarman in his book Margin of Safety states
"The financial markets are far too complex to be incorporated into a formula. Moreover, if any successful investment formula be devised, it would be exploited by those who possessed it until competition eliminated the excess profits. The quest fora formula that worked would then begin anew. Investors would be much better off to redirect the time and effort committed to devising formulas into fundamental analysis of specific investment opportunities."

This value approach does not employ the classic low P/E, P/B, P/CF, high dividend yield etc. for security analysis.

But wait does that mean these investors believe in the efficient market theory, isn't value investing a contradiction to the theory?

Of course they don't agree completely with it, but they agree partially.

These value investors believe that you cannot gain an advantage by looking at big cap stocks followed by thousands of analysts. These investors believe the best way is to not fight the crowd but to look for value situations with high margins of safety in obscure places.

These include spin-off's, bankruptcies, risk arbitrage and small cap stocks in general. These are situations where analysts are not covering and many institutional investors are not interested in and sometimes legally obligated to sell (e.g. some funds are obligated to sell any stock that goes under $5).

The theory sounds good but does it work?

The answer is a resounding yes.

Many of the most outstanding investors have handily beat the market for many decades using this approach including Seth Klarman and Joel Greenblatt.

Greenblatt states that spin-off's on average have beating the market by a 2-1 margin.

Furthermore, he states that if you look for special value situations which occur in many spin-off's you can earn much higher rate of return. Greenblatt employed some of these methods returning spectacular 50% annualized returns for over 10 years.


What is the the other school of value investing? I would call this the contrarian investing approach made most famous by David Dreman.

This approach believes that the stock market (especially in the short term) is driven by psychology.

The best value is in stocks with low P/E, P/B among many other methods to investigate whether a stock is over or undervalued. All this information is publicly available and is true for both small cap and large cap stocks.

So why doesn't everyone just look for stocks with low P/Es and high dividend yields which can easily be found on a stock screener?

The reason is investors overreact and place too high a P/E on stocks that have experienced recent earnings growth in recent years.

High P/Es are also placed on certain sectors that are expected to do well over the coming years such as technology. When these stocks don't match the earning estimates (or even if they match the estimates but investors are no longer willing to pay such a high premium for them since they fall out of favour), they can decline heavily in value.

Does this method also work?

The answer is yes, Jason Zweig in his commentary on the Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham states that over the 30 year period ending in 2002 utilities outperformed technology stocks.

Stocks with low P/E and P/B ratios have outperformed higher P/E and P/B stocks over long periods of time not only in America but in virtually every stock market in the world. The reason is that people think alike across the world. Amazon is a lot sexier than Altria, which is constantly stigmatized by lawsuits and laws restricting tobacco use, yet Altria has far outperformed Amazon over the past ten years.

Both value investing approaches are legitimate and provide an investor the chance to outperform the market.

Although by using the contrarian approach it is easier to find stocks that are potential investments, both require full analysis of financial statements.

The first approach is harder but most times the returns are much higher.

The most important thing to keep in mind about value investing is to always be disciplined and not driven by emotion, devote time to analysis before investing and to invest in undervalued securities with high margins of safety.